"The Digital Revenue Revolution" Hotel Okura Amsterdam 17 and 18 October 2007 400 participants from 74 countries Summaries of all conference presentations from Thursday sessions are posted below. Summaries from Wednesday sessions can be found here. WAN Calendar of Events Selected quotes from the conference Envisioning the newspaper 2020 Join WAN Mobile: the third screen Eamonn Byrne, Business Director, World Association of Newspapers "Who would have guessed five or even 10 years ago that mobile would become the third screen?" says Mr Byrne. "Post TV, post PC, we now have the challenge of the third screen. Mobiles are a massive business and enjoy wider penetration among consumers than any other screen." But while the potential is there for mobile internet, it has yet to be realized -- and forecasts for future use vary widely, says Mr Byrne, who presented an overview of mobile business trends. "The differences among predictors of digital growth vary by 100 percent," he says. "We know there will be change, we know there will be rapid growth but we’re nervous about believing all the predictions." The uncertainty doesn’t mean publishers can ignore it, he stressed. "We believe that mobile internet now stands at a tipping point," he says. "Adoption patterns are increasing toward mobile internet usage. Consumers are learning they no longer need their laptop or PC to get information all during the day." But consumers so far haven’t proved to be enthusiastic. Mr Byrne presented data that showed a vast majority of those with mobile internet access in five leading European countries do not use it. "It could be it’s too expensive, too hard to set up, or they simply don’t want to use it," Mr Byrne says. If mobile takes off as predicted, newspapers are well-placed to benefit he said. News, sports and weather are among the most popular types of information. Consumers also use services such as transportation timetables and where they can get a pizza. "We can provide that too," says Mr Byrne. Revenue generation from mobile advertising Jasper de Vreugt, Head of Sales, EMEA, Mads, The Netherlands When mobile internet takes off, so will mobile advertising, which will be the primary revenue generator for content providers like newspaper publishers, says Mr de Vreugt. The traffic numbers are minimal, however, and the potential still rests in the future. "The boom like internet 12 years ago has yet to come, but it will," he says. While the numbers remain small, mobile internet browsing is increasing rapidly. This will continue as providers offer flat fees for broadband access, new devices with bigger screens became ubiquitous, and new content is developed, Mr de Vreugt says. "The publishing world is really working hard to catch up and create interesting mobile sites," he says. But where does the revenue come from? Again, with relatively small audiences, the advertising revenue has yet to develop. "The advertisers don’t think this way yet," says Mr de Vreugt. "They’re used to the web, but not mobile -- it’s not even on the radar screen of the CEO." Still, the future looks positive for mobile, given the large number of devices being used, and the potential they have for both personalised content and advertising, Mr de Vreugt said. Envisioning the future: a user’s guide Mats Lindgren, CEO and founder, Kairos Future Group, Sweden Newspapers in 2020 will be the navigators of the media landscape, will invite consumers to participate, will offer multiple distribution channels and multiple formats, and will focus on the strengths of each of their distribution channels for reaching different audiences, says Mr Lindgren. Kind of what they’re doing today. "Nothing is sure as there is not one single future in the future, there are several different options," says Mr Lindgren, a futurist and strategy consultant. "But what we do know is that the successful players on the future scene will think about and understand, better than their competitors, what is happening today." Mr Lindgren advocates a kind of "split vision" when thinking about future strategies: one focused on present trends, and one exploring alternative scenarios that might occur if current trends dissipate. He said there are three drivers of future scenarios -- technology, institutions and consumers themselves. Of the three, people themselves are the key, he said. He described their attitude as "100 percent me" and says they believe they have "complete freedom to form and shape my own life." This attitude will have profound implications for future media, he says. Futurists envision the newspaper in 2020 What will the newspaper look like in 2020? The World Association of Newspapers asked 22 futurists, academics, industry insiders, internet pioneers and other media experts to envision the newspaper of the future, and their responses say much about the present state of the newspaper business. Some say newspapers will resemble glossy magazines. Some say they will be individually tailored to readers. Some envision networks of news generators and digital news hubs. All these future scenarios share one thing in common -- they’re all based on current trends in the industry as newspapers evolve and grow as multimedia businesses. "Envisioning the Newspaper 2020" will soon be published by the Shaping the Future of the Newspaper project, exclusively for members of WAN. But the report served as a centrepiece Thursday in a seminar on the future of newspapers at the World Digital Publishing conference, which drew 400 media executives from 74 countries to Amsterdam. Excerpts from the report can be found here.` The session also included a panel to discuss the future of newspapers: Marcelo Rech, Editorial Director of Zero Hora, Brazil; Matt Kelly, Associate Editor for Development of the Daily Mirror, United Kingdom, and Mats Lindgren, CEO of Kairos Future Group, Sweden.