WAN 2000

World Press Trends: Newspaper Growth Continues

Newspaper sales increased in many countries in 1999, while advertising revenues showed significant and often spectacular growth, according to the annual survey of World Press Trends published Monday by the World Association of Newspapers.

The survey, presented to more than 1,300 publishers and editors from 71 countries at the 53rd World Newspaper Congress and 7th World Editors Forum in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, showed that:

Daily newspaper circulation continues to increase in the majority of countries; where decline has been sharpest over the past decade it has slowed down significantly.

The number of daily titles increased in 63 percent of the countries in the survey last year.

Newspaper advertising income again shows very good growth and in many countries the press is even winning back market share. Total newspaper advertising revenues, in constant terms, are now surging past the highest levels of the 1980s in Europe, North America and the Asia-Pacific region. On a global level, they were up 18.8 percent last year over 1987, and the figure is expected to exceed 20 percent in 2000.

Newspapers continue to take full advantage of the potential opened up by electronic media and web-sites, to raise revenues and build competitive advantage.

"The idea that newspapers could be in decline is now well behind us. The global newspaper industry is very much alive and robust and clearly in renaissance," said the WAN Director General, Timothy Balding, presenting the 11th annual WAN survey of the global newspaper industry to the Rio Congress.

"The new and intensifying competition, with the increasingly fragmented nature of media markets, is proving to be a remarkable stimulus to newspaper companies both to play better on their traditional strengths and to exploit to the full the new media opportunities, using all the assets they have gained as dominant players in many information markets," he said.

"Newspapers continue to improve their content and their form. They are increasingly adapting their marketing and pricing strategies to become more responsive and sensitive to the needs of advertisers. They are aggressively embracing the new means of information distribution provided by the internet."

The survey, which WAN has published annually since 1987, includes information on 64 countries.

The 2000 World Press Trends survey reveals:

On Circulation

Newspaper sales are up in 25 of the 46 countries in which comparable data is available and stable in two others. Several countries record growth for the second, third or fourth year in succession.

The number of daily titles increased in 22 countries in 1999, and decreased in 13 countries. For comparison, in 1996 the number of dailies rose in 14 countries and fell in 16 countries.

In the European Union, where circulation has been slipping for many years, the global sales loss shrank to only 0.1 percent in 1999. This is only one fifth of the loss registered in 1998 and one tenth of the loss in 1997.

At the same time, newspaper readership in western Europe actually increased last year by more than 1 percentage point, to 62.1 percent of all adults.

Over the past five years, newspaper sales in the EU have fallen 2.2 percent, representing 1.85 million less newspaper buyers in the Union in 1999 than in 1995. This is a much smaller loss than in the five years prior to 1999.

National figures show daily circulation increase in seven EU countries in 1999: Austria +8.5 percent; Portugal +2.0 percent; Ireland +1.8 percent; United Kingdom +1.5 percent; Italy +1.1 percent; Luxembourg +0.3 percent; and France +0.2 percent.

Austria experienced its fourth consecutive increase in circulation; Ireland and Italy rose for the third year, and Portugal, France and Luxembourg for the second consecutive year. The United Kingdom saw circulation rise for the first time since 1989.

Circulation was stable in Belgium, and the decrease compared to 1995 is less than half of the previous five-year decline. In Spain, circulation was stable after two straight years of growth.

Daily circulation declined in only six of the 15 EU member countries: Greece -5.5 percent; Denmark -3.5 percent; Sweden -2.3 percent; Germany -1.8 percent; Netherlands -0.9 percent; and Finland -0.5 percent.

In Denmark, Sweden and Germany, the rate of decline accelerated over 1998. In the Netherlands, circulation declined very slightly.

Over the five years, 1995 to 1999, circulation declined in 10 of the 15 EU countries, compared to 12 in the previous five-year period: -8.2 percent in Luxembourg; -7.9 percent in Sweden; -7.7 percent in Greece; -5.7 percent in the Netherlands; - 5.3 percent in Denmark; - 4.1 percent in the United Kingdom; -3.9 percent in Germany; -2.6 percent in Belgium; - 1.5 percent in Finland; and -0.7 percent in Italy.

Five countries increased circulation over the five-year period: Austria (+38.3 percent), Portugal (+12.5 percent) and Spain (+1.5 percent), which were already showing five-year gains to last year, and now Ireland (+3.8 percent) and France (+0.3 percent).

The number of daily titles published in the EU has fallen, but only slightly -- 1,147 to 1,133 -- in the past five years. Average circulation per title remained stable at 75,000.

Elsewhere in Western Europe, Iceland reported a 2.2 percent increase in sales in 1998 (the most recent year for which figures are available), Norway registered a slight fall in circulation (-0.3 percent) in 1999, while Switzerland saw a modest increase (+0.1 percent).

The picture for dailies in Eastern and Central Europe has been negative for some time but now shows some bright spots. Circulation is rising modestly in Slovenia (+0.3 percent), and quite strongly in Croatia (+5.1 percent), Estonia (+7.5 percent), Bulgaria (+21.4 percent), Slovakia (+21.5 percent), and in Latvia (+23.5 percent). It more than doubled in the Ukraine (+104.4 percent).

In Russia, circulation is now partly audited, and increasing (+4.4 percent). There were 45 new titles launched in 1999, bringing the total to 2,680 -- making the country the biggest daily newspaper market in terms of published titles.

In the world's two biggest economies, the circulation of dailies in the United States continued its decline in 1999, though the decrease (-0.4 percent) was cut by more than half over the previous year.

In the past five years, there has been a 3.8 percent decline in US daily circulation; going back 10 years, the fall amounts to 10.7 percent. That means 6.67 million less people buy a daily newspaper in the United States today than a decade ago.

In terms of the number of titles, there has been a drop of 50 titles in the past five years. It is worth noting that the average circulation of the reduced number of titles has remained stable over this period.

The Japanese newspaper market remains resilient among industrialized countries: daily sales took a slight dip (-0.3 percent) in 1999, but have increased by 0.2 percent over the past five years. Over the last decade, the increase is 1 percent, which means that 761,000 people more buy a newspaper daily in Japan today than ten years ago.

Elsewhere in Asia, India saw sales decline by -3.6 percent after five straight years of growth. But, compared to 1995, there are still 1.73 million more newspaper readers on the sub-continent today, an increase of 7.3 percent.

The economic problems of several countries in the region continue to make their mark, although exceptions may be found: in China, for example, circulation soared over the 50 million mark last year (+12.7 percent).

In Taiwan, the number of titles increased from 149 to 170, and in Indonesia the relaxation of regulations more than doubled the number of daily titles, from 79 to 172.

In the Pacific, Australia reports a slight circulation decrease (-0.8 percent) in 1999 and sales are also marginally down (-0.8 percent) since 1995. In New Zealand, daily sales fell -2.8 percent last year and have decreased by 7.1 percent since 1995.

In Latin America, where it has been difficult to obtain reliable data, the picture remains mixed for the region: Brazil performs well and has enjoyed healthy growth both last year and compared to 1995 (+1.1 percent and +10.6 percent respectively); Costa Rica saw circulation increase by 9.4 percent last year; Colombia registers short- and medium-term increases (+2 percent and +2.4 percent respectively); Argentina's results are uniformly bad (-10 percent and -15.5 percent respectively).

Comparing the size of total circulation in the national markets, Japan remains a long way in front with 72,218,000 copies sold daily; India has finally pushed the USA out of second place with a total of 60 million copies; the USA is in third place, with 55,979,000 copies: China is in fourth place with 50 million copies; followed by Germany with 24,565,000 copies sold daily.

The Norwegians and the Japanese remain the world's greatest newspaper buyers with, respectively, 583 and 574 sales per thousand population each day. Finland comes third with 452, and Sweden follows with 420. Switzerland was next at 376.

Of the 56 countries for which this data is available, 23 remain below 100 copies sold per thousand population: Ukraine (84), Lebanon (74), Portugal (73), Costa Rica (72), Cyprus (69), Greece and Turkey (64), Philippines (63), Argentina (56), Brazil (46), China (40), Poland (37), South Africa (29), Sri Lanka (29), India (28), Colombia (26), Indonesia (23), Mongolia (17), Azerbaijan (10), Kyrgyzstan (9), Kenya (8), Peru (4), and Cameroon (0.5).

Readership

The figures on newspaper reach, or readership, among adults find Finland leading the world with 91 percent (up 6 points from 1998), Sweden with 88 percent and Switzerland with 84 percent. Next comes Norway with 81 percent and Japan with 80 percent.

Generally the gap between countries is often much lower than that for their circulation per thousand population; Estonia sells a mere 189 copies per 1,000 population but 75 percent of the Estonians read a newspaper daily. German newspapers have a reach of 78 percent, those in Austria 76 percent, those in Luxembourg 69 percent and those in the Netherlands 67 percent. In the United States, 57 percent of all adults read a newspaper daily and 75 percent weekly. The average daily reach in western Europe is 62.1 percent, which represents an increase of 1.1 points.

Reach figures greatly improve the situation in several countries where newspaper buying is very low: in Kenya, where on 8 people per thousand buy a newspaper daily, 40 percent of all adults reported reading one; in Indonesia, where 23 people per thousand buy newspapers but 50 percent read one; in Portugal, where the respective figures are 73 people and 40 percent; and Malaysia, 112 people and 60 percent.

In terms of the split in the readership between men and women, the biggest gaps occur in Spain (46 percent men and 24 percent women); Italy (50 percent men and 30 percent women); Portugal (58 percent men and 24 percent women); Croatia (33 percent men and 18 percent women); Colombia (32 percent men and 20 percent women) and Lebanon (31 percent men and 19 percent women).

In no country in the world, at least not in the WAN survey, do men and women read daily newspapers in equal numbers. Costa Rica comes close, with 96 percent of men and 95 percent of women reading newspapers weekly. The other countries closest to equality are all in northern Europe: Finland, where 93 percent of men and 90 percent of women read a newspaper daily; Sweden, where the figures are 89 percent and 88 percent; Norway, 84 percent and 79 percent; and Denmark, 76 percent and 70 percent.

In terms of readership by age groups, the results are most encouraging, particularly in the younger age brackets, which augur well for the future of the industry. Some examples: In Australia, 88.6 percent of 14- to 24-year-olds read a newspaper at least once a week, up 0.1 percent over 1998, though circulation in the country declined; in Austria, 72 percent of 14- to 19-year-olds read a newspaper daily. In Brazil, 56 percent of 15-to 24-year-olds read a newspaper daily, two points higher than the overall readership and 1 point higher than in 1998. In Chile, 67 percent of 15- to-19-year-olds read a newspaper daily. In Spain, readership of people aged 20 to 24 is 39 percent, 4 points higher than the global average of 35 percent. In Japan, though circulation dipped slightly, reach among 20- to 29-year-olds increased by 3.7 points, and is 8 points above overall reach.

Advertising

Newspapers in 24 of the 33 countries in which data was available recorded a real increase in advertising revenues in 1999; only in nine countries did these revenues decrease.

In the European Union, 12 of the 13 countries where data is available recorded real increases in 1999, as high as 38.7 percent in Greece or 17.8 percent in Austria. Over the past five years, all of them except one (Spain) are up.

In Norway, adspend fell last year, but is still up 36.4 percent in real terms compared to 1995; in Switzerland, spend increased by 5 percent. Overall, adspend in European newspapers increased by 8.9 percent in constant terms last year.

The EU countries with the lowest growth are the Netherlands (0.7 percent) and Germany (2.7 percent).

Newspapers in the US continue to perform strongly, with revenues up by 3.2 percent last year in real terms and up 17.5 percent in the past five years. The highest 1999 growth was in national advertising, up 17.7 percent. Classified advertising revenues increased by 4.3 percent, and retail, by 2.8 percent.

In Japan, publishers are still suffering from the recession, and ad revenues fell 6.6 percent last year. Since Japan represents 9 percent of the world's newspaper ad expenditure, recovery here would contribute a lot to the global situation.

Total advertising spend on daily newspapers was 46.289 billion dollars in the US, 22.061 billion dollars in Europe, and 6.552 billion dollars in Japan.

Outside these three economic blocks, the most striking results are a 58.9 percent increase in the advertising revenues of newspapers in Thailand, after a drop of 34 percent in 1998, and a 34 percent increase in South Korea. In Indonesia, revenues increased by 3.8 percent, whereas in Taiwan they fell by 12.6 percent.

In Latin America, Peruvian newspapers saw revenues decrease by 1.7 percent, but they rose 25.5 percent in constant prices compared to 1995. In Brazil, revenues declined by -28 percent in current prices, though they were up in local currency. Colombia suffered a 13.8 percent fall in constant terms.

Newspapers in no less than 23 countries saw their share of the advertising market increase in 1999: Australia, Austria, Canada, Colombia, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Hong Kong, Iceland, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Philippines, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey and the United Kingdom.

Newspapers in 16 countries have increased their share of the advertising market in the last five years: Argentina, Costa Rica, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Lebanon, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Peru, the Philippines, Puerto Rico, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey.

Elsewhere it fell, by as many as 16 points in Bulgaria, by 11 points in Hungary and by 7 points in Slovenia.

Newspapers in eight countries still win 50 percent or more of the advertising market, though in four of them -- Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Switzerland -- the share has diminished since 1995.

The countries where newspapers had the lowest share of the advertising market were Russia and Hungary (15 percent), Mexico (14 percent), Cyprus, Colombia, Peru and Poland (11 percent).

Japan and the US both lost two points of market share between 1995 and 1999, and 1 point compared to 1998.

Major disparities continue in the ratio of advertising to circulation sales as a source of newspaper income: from 87 percent in favour of advertising in the US to 60 percent in favour of sales in Japan -- a difference of 47 points between these revenue sources. In western Europe, Luxembourg newspapers gain 79 percent of their revenues from advertising; in Norway 63 percent and in the United Kingdom 62 percent. In France, advertising revenues account for only 41 percent of total income, the lowest in the EU.

Internet

For the third time, the survey includes information on the development of newspaper web sites. For the 35 countries which provided comparable data for 1998 and 1999, the number of web sites increased very significantly in many cases: In Australia, by 258 percent; in China, by 174 percent; in Italy, by 121 percent; in Turkey, by 100 percent; in Bulgaria, by 75 percent; in South Korea, by 62 percent; in the US, by 28 percent; in Germany, by 26 percent, in the Netherlands, by 25 percent; and in Brazil, by 14 percent.

"Reading habits do change," said Mr. Balding. "But more and more, the newspaper is establishing itself as a platform, or you might even say portal, for news and information, that you access in various formats. In countries where we continue to report decline in readership, the figures are in some ways misleading. Where internet penetration is high, newspapers might have lost slightly in the paper format -- but they have in many cases more than compensated for this through readership on their web sites."

"As a matter of fact, a number of newspapers can report a huge increase in reading - but it comes in two ways: the traditional newspaper and the internet site. The combination is proving very strong and has strengthened the image and reach of many newspapers."

Non-dailies

In some countries, circulation for non-daily newspapers (defined as titles publishing three times or less a week) showed impressive increases. In Colombia, for example, non-dailies circulation grew by 297 percent and in Indonesia by 52.9 percent. In Bulgaria, non-dailies again increased circulation by 30.6 percent and have put on 81 percent sales since 1996; in Greece, non-dailies saw circulation rise by 31 percent as dailies declined 4.5 percent; Slovenia and Ukraine both increased by 28.5 percent.

Since 1995, the highest circulation increases for non-dailies have been in Colombia, where sales have more than doubled in five years (up 126 percent), Indonesia (up 110 percent), Ireland (up 57 percent), New Zealand (up 41 percent) and Cyprus (up 30 percent).

On the negative side, circulation of non-dailies has declined by 35 percent in the Netherlands, by 30 percent in Mongolia and by 20 percent in Portugal.

As with dailies, the survey looked at the sales per thousand population of non-dailies and the number of non-daily titles per million population. On sales, Ukraine leads with 400 copies per thousand population. Six of the ten countries with the highest market penetration are in Eastern Europe: after Ukraine comes Estonia, with 290 copies sold per thousand population, Latvia with 268 copies per thousand, Slovenia with 215 copies, Bulgaria with 195 and Russia with 167 copies per thousand.

The survey also looked at Sunday newspapers and their relative importance in different markets. They have the greatest impact in the United Kingdom, where 271 copies are sold per thousand population each Sunday (up 17 points). Ireland, with 221 copies, comes in second place, the USA with 216 copies, in third, and Australia with 184 copies in fourth.

The 237-page World Press Trends 2000 edition is available from the World Association of Newspapers, 25 rue d'Astorg, 75008 Paris France. Tel: +33 1 47 42 85 00, Fax +33 1 47 42 49 48. E-mail: contact_us@wan.asso.fr

The Paris-based WAN, the global organisation for the newspaper industry, defends and promotes press freedom world-wide. It represents 17,000 newspapers; its membership includes 65 national newspaper associations, individual newspaper executives in 93 countries, 17 news agencies and seven regional press groups.

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